Fewer apartments are being built right now than at any point since 2016. In the first quarter of 2026, new apartment deliveries fell 30% compared to a year ago, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Builders pulled back because construction costs are high, financing is expensive, and lenders are picky. That's not changing anytime soon.

What the national numbers show

Renters are still showing up. Demand came in at 65,200 units in Q1 2026 — normal by historical standards. National vacancy held steady at 9.4%. Asking rents grew 0.9% year-over-year. The market isn't booming, but it's absorbing what was built and stabilizing.

Why Salt Lake City is getting attention

Arbor Realty Trust and Chandan Economics rank the 50 largest U.S. cities every six months for apartment investment potential. In their Spring 2026 report, Salt Lake City ranked top 5 in the country — alongside Raleigh and Nashville. Indianapolis was #1.

What got SLC into that tier: people keep moving here, the renter population skews young, and jobs in tech and manufacturing are growing. Nearly 90% of major U.S. cities are now seeing annual rent increases. Salt Lake City is in that group.

Utah's numbers

Utah apartment sales volume jumped more than 65% last year to roughly $890 million. Average price per unit hit $311,500 — also up 65% year-over-year. Cap rates settled in the 5.3–5.4% range. Buyers aren't waiting for a bottom. They're already moving.

The long-term picture is straightforward. Utah County is projected to double in population by 2065 — adding about 800,000 people. Meanwhile, over 60% of Utah homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%. They're not selling. That keeps rental demand strong.

If you own rentals on the Wasatch Front: the worst of the new-supply pressure is behind you. Fewer new units are coming. Your tenants have fewer options. You don't need rents to spike — you just need things to hold steady, and right now they are.

If you're looking to buy: the window to buy below replacement cost is closing. Big institutional investors have now identified SLC as a top market, but they move slowly. Local buyers with relationships and speed still have an edge — for now.

On underwriting: don't project big rent increases in year one. The market is stabilizing, not surging. But modest rent growth by 2027 is a reasonable assumption given how little is being built.

The supply wave that squeezed Wasatch Front landlords in 2023 and 2024 is over. Construction is down sharply, institutional capital is calling SLC a top-5 market, and the long-term demand case here is as strong as it's been. The fundamentals were never broken — they were just buried under a lot of new inventory. That inventory is gone.

_{Data sourced from Cushman & Wakefield Multifamily MarketBeat Q1 2026; Arbor Realty Trust / Chandan Economics Spring 2026 Multifamily Opportunity Matrix; Lument Salt Lake Multifamily Market Report, December 2025; 2026 Economic Report to the Governor / Gardner Policy Institute; CBRE 2026 Multifamily Outlook.}

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.31% this week, down from about 6.44% last week and down from roughly 6.98% a year ago. Rates are moving in the right direction, even if they're still elevated. If you're looking at adjustable-rate loans, the 7/6 ARM — which holds a fixed rate for seven years before adjusting — is at 5.98%, about a third of a point below the 30-year fixed.

The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.278% as of Wednesday morning, up slightly from 4.254% the day before. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year, so until that number drops, don't expect mortgage rates to fall much further on their own. If you're waiting for a big rate drop before pulling the trigger on a deal, underwrite to something close to where rates are today — the drop may not come as fast or as deep as you're hoping.

Source: Mortgage News Daily/Market Watch

Utah Headlines

Ogden's $240 Million WonderBlock Nears First Occupancy as City Debates Paid Parking Downtown — The 354-unit project — apartments, a hotel, office, and retail across 5.9 acres in downtown Ogden — is on track for first move-ins by year-end, and the city is now considering paid on-street parking at $1.50–$2 per hour to help cover project costs.

Salt Lake City Falls to 88th in National Housing Market Rankings, Down from Top 5 in 2020 — Salt Lake City came in 88th out of 127 mid-sized markets at the start of 2026, with the median Salt Lake County home price at $544,900 (up 5%) and mortgage rates near 6.4% keeping many buyers on the fence — though local realtors call the slowdown a welcome breather.

National Headlines

Bessent Backs Rate Cuts but Tells Fed It's OK to Wait — Treasury Secretary Bessent said core inflation — which strips out food and energy — came in at just 0.2% in March, but overall prices rose 0.9% because of higher energy costs from the war, giving the Fed reason to hold rates where they are for now.

White House Says U.S. Is Short 10 Million Homes — A new White House report puts the U.S. housing shortage at a minimum of 10 million single-family homes, well above prior estimates of 3.7 million from Freddie Mac and 5.5 million from the National Association of Realtors, with mortgage rates above 6% making it harder for buyers to close the gap.

Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Point Since September — A monthly survey of U.S. homebuilders fell 4 points to 34 in April — the lowest reading since last fall — with 70% of builders saying they're having trouble pricing homes because material costs keep rising due to higher fuel prices.

Pending Home Sales Drop 2.4% — Biggest Decline in 3 Months — as Buyers Pull Back — Home sales contracts fell 2.4% compared to last year in the four weeks ending April 5, with the average home sitting on the market for 51 days — the longest stretch for this time of year since 2019 — and new listings also down 2.6%.

Chicago Lost 90% of Its New Apartment Supply in One Year — Chicago's share of newly built apartments dropped from 0.54% to 0.06% of total rental stock in one year, leaving 9 renters competing for every open unit and pushing the Midwest ahead of every other U.S. region for rental competition.

36% of Workers Have Put Off Buying a Home, Redfin Finds — A Redfin survey of more than 3,000 workers found that 32% are more worried about their job security than they were six months ago, with 7% saying they missed a rent or mortgage payment entirely in the past three months.

Book a free 30 minute Strategy Call with me here.

David Robinson - Principal Broker | Investor